Market Insights

Monthly Market Insights: November 2025

U.S. Markets

Stocks advanced in October as major averages pushed through a government shutdown and trade jitters. Robust Q3 corporate results drove momentum over a month that is notorious for market declines.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 2.27%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.70% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.51%. This marked the sixth consecutive month of stock market gains.

Stocks Power through Shutdown

As October got underway, concerns about the government shutdown hung over trading. Markets kept one eye on the Senate, which failed to pass dueling funding bills that would have prevented the shutdown.

Markets began to trend higher despite the Fed meeting minutes from September, which revealed somewhat divided opinions on short-term interest rates.

The Return of Trade Jitters (Again)

The sentiment then turned negative on the second Friday of the month, following the White House's announcement of a tariff increase on imported goods from China. The drop, led by chip manufacturers, was the largest single-day decline for stocks since April. Stocks rebounded after the White House struck a more conciliatory tone regarding China.

Three-Week Rally Wraps a Strong Month

Stocks then staged an impressive, if choppy, rebound over several days, fueled by mostly positive, better-than-expected quarterly results from a handful of major money center banks. The gains overpowered negative sentiment around lingering trade concerns.

Tech-led leadership took over from the financials and pushed the market higher. Mild inflation data also contributed to momentum and helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials hit multiple all-time highs.

Stocks rose again over the final week of October as investors cheered upbeat Q3 corporate results and a new trade truce with China.

Sector Scorecard

Five of the 11 S&P 500 Index sectors finished the month in the green, which helped underscore the influence of technology.

Technology (+6.68%) was the clear leader over the quarter, besting the overall index by more than 4%age points. Health Care (+3.65%) and Utilities (+2.17%) also helped support the market’s gain. Industrials (+0.54%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.12%) also finished higher but lagged the S&P 500’s return.

On the downside, Materials (-4.41%), Communication Services (-3.01%), Financials (-2.78%), Consumer Staples (-2.67%), Real Estate (-2.92%) and Energy (-1.35%) were under pressure.

U.S. Market Recap

The Markets

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid.

World Markets

The MSCI EAFE Index rose 1.10% in October. While it trailed all three major U.S. averages last month, the EAFE Index is still having a solid year through October.

European markets were higher. The United Kingdom (+3.92%) and Spain (+3.60%) led the major developed markets. France was up 2.85% for the month. By contrast, Italy (+1.05%) and Germany (+0.32%) lagged.

Korea (+19.94%) and Japan (+14.23%) posted head-turning gains among Pacific Rim markets. Meanwhile, China’s Hang Seng Index fell 3.52%.

World Market Recap

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Indicators

Please note that, due to the delayed release of up-to-date government data for most indicators listed below, we have used non-government sources as proxies where necessary.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The economy grew at a 4.0% pace in the third quarter, based on the October 31 GDPNow estimates from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, likely driven by continued robust consumer spending. That was slightly higher than the 3.8% pace of growth in the second quarter, based on official government data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Employment. Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, the largest drop in 2½ years and considerably lower than the 45,000 job gain economists expected. Job losses were widespread across most sectors, with notable exceptions in the education and health services sectors. August jobs data was revised down substantially, to a loss of 3,000 corporate jobs from an initially reported increase of 54,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls report was not published for September.
  

• Retail Sales. Consumer spending, excluding cars and car parts, rose 0.5% in September over the prior month, as estimated by the Chicago Fed’s Advance Retail Trade Summary. That compared with a 0.7% monthly rise in August. Despite a slight decline, it still marked the fourth consecutive month of rising retail sales. Year-over-year retail sales rose 2.5% in September, versus 3.8% in August.
• Manufacturing. Manufacturing activity inched up 0.4%age points over the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). ISM’s Manufacturing PMI composite rose to a 49.1% reading last month (any reading above 42.3% over a sustained period indicates an expansion of the overall economy). Drops in new orders and inventories outweighed gains in production growth.
• Housing. Homebuilder confidence for newly built single-family homes rose 5 points in October over the prior month to a score of 37—its highest reading in six months. (A reading over 50 indicates most single-family homebuilders are confident in overall housing market conditions, while a lower reading indicates less builder optimism.)

Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in September over the prior month, and 4.1% year over year. Regionally, sales increased on a month-over-month basis in the Northeast, South, and West, and on a year-over-year basis in the Northeast, Midwest, and South. The median existing home sales price in September was $415,200, 2.1% higher than a year ago. Supply increased 1.3% in September over August, and by 14.0% year-over-year.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer prices rose 0.3% in September over the prior month, lower than the 0.4% rise economists expected and cooler than August’s 0.4% monthly increase. Year over year, prices rose 3.0%, also slower than economists’ expectations and a slight uptick from August’s 2.9% increase. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year—both cooler than expectations.
• Durable Goods Orders. Orders of manufactured goods designed to last three years or longer declined 2.8% in July, beating market expectations for a 4.0% drop.

The Fed

Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting were released on October 8 and showed a closely divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While all but one FOMC voting member voted to lower rates at the September meeting, only a slim 10-9 majority favored two additional quarter-point cuts through year-end. But Minutes also revealed growing concern about the labor market among Committee members.

That concern was reflected in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech the following week.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25% at the FOMC meeting on October 29. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the challenge in setting monetary policy without those reports.

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting (the last one of the year) is December 9-10, when the Fed will also publish a Summary of Economic Projections.

By the Numbers: Thanksgiving